Fed Speak: Pause vs. Pivot

(This post was posted in Nov 2022) The Federal Reserve’s November 2022 statement contained dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation. Upside inflation led the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) for a historic fourth time. This brought the fed funds rate up to a 3.75%–4% range, meaningfully above the Fed’s 2.5% median long-run estimate, as inflation continues to justify monetary policy with the objective to tame inflation. In spite of continued inflation, the Fed also indicated

“To Raise or not to Raise (Rates) is the Question….” – Conundrum facing the Fed this month

Published December 10, 2018 “To Raise or not to Raise (Rates) is the question…”  – would best describe Federal Reserve’s position, if we were to apply the Bard of Avon’s immortal quote from Hamlet, to the likelihood of hiking the Interest Rate in their December 19 FOMC Meeting. Trade war fears along with the specter of a possible economic slowdown have sent markets down significantly in the last couple of weeks. Consequently, it is reported by CME that Investors currently see a 73.2% chance of a rate hike following the December Fed meeting, while a week ago, the probability for