Hobson’s Choice is defined as “a choice of taking what is available or nothing at all” which is where we feel the Fed is standing at the present moment. The Fed currently holds its benchmark funds rate, which banks charge each other for short-term lending, is at 4.58% today compared to 0.33% last year and is lower than the long-term average of 4.60%. We are in this position because of tremendous volatility in the Financial Markets since last week with the failure of three medium sized US banks viz. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Silvergate Bank along with well publicized
Category: US Monetary Policy
Fed Speak: Pause vs. Pivot
(This post was posted in Nov 2022) The Federal Reserve’s November 2022 statement contained dovish language, but Fed Chair Powell warned investors not to expect the Fed to stray from its full focus on fighting inflation. Upside inflation led the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) for a historic fourth time. This brought the fed funds rate up to a 3.75%–4% range, meaningfully above the Fed’s 2.5% median long-run estimate, as inflation continues to justify monetary policy with the objective to tame inflation. In spite of continued inflation, the Fed also indicated
Economics, Financial Markets, US Federal Government Oversight, US Fiscal Policy, US Monetary Policy, US Stock Market
Fed’s Good Call today – Thank you for signaling a more data driven, cautious and market-friendly approach
(Published January 30, 2019) We are extremely delighted and relieved, in equal measure, that the Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady today. “The case for raising rates has weakened somewhat,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the post FOMC Meeting news conference. He also indicated that a “wait and see attitude with patience is warranted”. “The U.S. economy is in a good place, and the current policy stance is appropriate” he said, but added there’s growing evidence of “crosscurrents,” such as slowing growth in China. “In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the
“To Raise or not to Raise (Rates) is the Question….” – Conundrum facing the Fed this month
Published December 10, 2018 “To Raise or not to Raise (Rates) is the question…” – would best describe Federal Reserve’s position, if we were to apply the Bard of Avon’s immortal quote from Hamlet, to the likelihood of hiking the Interest Rate in their December 19 FOMC Meeting. Trade war fears along with the specter of a possible economic slowdown have sent markets down significantly in the last couple of weeks. Consequently, it is reported by CME that Investors currently see a 73.2% chance of a rate hike following the December Fed meeting, while a week ago, the probability for
Federal Reserve, buoyed by stronger economy, lifts rates again. Is it time to pause further Rate Hikes? Our Appeal to the Fed
Published on Dec 20, 2017 The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by a quarter point last week as the U.S. economy continues to be on get healthier. The rate hike, which was widely expected, was the third this year as Policy makers pointed to the lower number of unemployed workers, increased spending by households, and bigger investments by businesses in recent quarters. This is the fifth time the Fed has lifted interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis and will now hover in a range of 1.25% to 1.5%. Overall, rates are still historically low. The Fed put