Published Aug 12, 2017:

This week we had another, by all accounts, successful ICBM Test by North Korea aka DPRK (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea), which makes it two in a row. This coupled with separate successful Nuclear Tests in earlier years, has “upped the ante” in in the Korean Peninsula and now has the potential to cross some dangerous “red lines”.  It can now be surmised that North Korea is probably working on “miniaturizing” the nuclear warheads to mount them on the cone of the ICBM to perform “integrated tests” of the entire ICBM system in coming months. If / when DPRK is able to do this, we can conclude that the “nuclear genie” can never be “put back in the bottle” in the Korean Peninsula and rollback / containment will no longer be an option in this Geopolitical equation!

However, this week’s belligerent rhetoric emanating from Pyongyang, seemed to suggest that the Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un was contemplating attacking Guam with their newly tested (current) non-nuclear tipped ICBM System. It is well known that DPRK is all about posturing since they believe in “getting attention” in pursuit of their goal to  be recognized as a legitimate Nuclear Power and establish full diplomatic relations with USA. To this end, North Korea always wants to undermine USA-South Korea alliance, such as South Korean President Moon Jae In’s Korea Initiative, and deal directly with America and not a “group of nations”. But if past experience is any guide, North Korea has rarely followed through with threats since the world has generally yielded concessions and they have benefitted from such “grandstanding” every time.

But this time, in our opinion, North Korea may be miscalculating by attempting to “play poker” with America and their allies. We now have a President, who very rightly has articulated, that we need a more assertive foreign policy and back it up with force as needed. DPRK is used to “bluffing” and getting away with gains in earlier occasions – but now with a decisive President who has two retired 4 Star Generals in his cabinet viz. Gen Mattis as Secretary of Defense and General Kelly as his Chief of Staff,  Pyongyang is likely to find their rhetoric being taken very seriously and met with force. This may run counter to Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) during such cold war era conflicts, where each side becomes risk averse when contact comes  with an irrational dictator in Pyongyang who has probably not met somebody like our President who does not like threats!

From a strategic perspective, should conflict occur it is very likely that North Korea may attack Seoul with conventional weapons, for which there will be retaliation from America and their allies, and North Korea will seek to get China on their side and invoke the Sino-North Korea Treaty of 1961. If this does come to pass and in the unlikely scenario that PRC (People Republic of China) honors their treaty obligations, we could have a huge conflict. The situation could very quickly escalate to Korean Conflict proportions when 5 Star Gen MacArthur wanted to use Strategic (Nuclear) Weapons against the PLA inside PRC until President Truman stepped in, Truce signed and two Koreas separated.

We believe that in order to prevent escalation and keep North Korea in check this time around, we should move our Strategic (Nuclear) Assets into position, and be ready to retaliate with overwhelming force, should North Korea embark on this course of aggression. We should also persuade China to press DPRK to stand down by providing PRC with incentives, and should PRC not cooperate, we should be ready to impose economic penalties by penalizing them for their “currency manipulation”, levy “dumping” taxes on their imports and confront them on “human rights” abuses. We should be ready to consider an array of solutions ranging from Tactical Military Response, Chinese sponsored coup d’etat to outcome based diplomatic solutions when dealing with Pyongyang.

In closing,  in our opinion, Pyongyang’s recent rhetoric to attack Guam is an empty threat to extract concessions and for their domestic consumption. Consequently, we should not reward such “behavior” and stand firm.

Pyongyang must also be aware that any act of aggression on American Soil will be met with overwhelming force and has never ended well for such aggressors – case in point Pearl Harbor attack by Japan during World War II and Taliban backed attackers from Afghanistan in September 2011! We believe that Dictators are used to getting their way but understand the “use of force multiplier” effect very well, based on their dealing with their people.

Hence, we feel that North Korea will back down since they are now dealing with an assertive President, who has exponentially superior firepower, and will not hesitate to use it!